NICKEL

Introduction

 Nickel is a metal with a bright future as it is the main alloying metal needed in the production of certain types of stainless steel. The strength and life span of products manufactured using stainless steel are superior to the one’s produced using non-stainless steels.

 Demand and Supply

 World production of primary Nickel during 2011 was 1.612 million metric tonnes (MMT), up by 11.53% as compared with 1.446 MMT in 2010. Whereas, the world's consumption during 2011 was at 1.608 MMT vis-à-vis 1.465 MMT in 2010, up by 9.76%. 

Global Scenario

 Russia, Canada and Norway are the world's largest nickel exporters accounting for almost 49% of world exports. On the other hand, China, USA and Germany are the world's largest nickel importers accounting for around 48% of world imports.

 Indian Scenario 

The annual demand for nickel in India is around 40,000 MT and its market in India is totally dependent on imports. 

Factors Influencing the Market

 Nickel prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on the international spot market, and Indian Rupee and US Dollar exchange rates. Economic events such as national industrial growth, global financial crisis, recession and inflation affect metal prices. Commodity-specific events such as the construction of new production facilities or processes, new uses or the discontinuance of historical uses, unexpected mine or plant closures, or industry restructuring affect the market. Trade policies set by the Government (implementation or suspension of taxes, penalties, and quotas) affect supply as they regulate (restricting or encouraging) material flow. Geopolitical events involving governments or economic paradigms and armed conflict can cause major changes. As societies develop, their demand for metal increases based on their current economic position, which could also be referred as ‘National Economic Growth Factor’.

COPPER

Introduction 

 Copper (chemical symbol - Cu) is a malleable and ductile metallic element that is an excellent conductor of heat and electricity. It is also corrosion resistant and antimicrobial. It stands at the third place after steel and aluminium, in the context of consumption. Copper is an important contributor to the national economies of mature, newly developed and developing countries. Copper is one of the most recycled of all metals. It is our ability to recycle metals over and over again that makes them a material of choice. 

Demand and Supply

 In 2011, world’s copper mine production continued to underperform with respect to capacity, and remained at the 2010 level of 16.005 million metric tonnes (MMT). In 2011, the global refined copper production was 19.630 MMT, up from 18.998 MMT in 2010. The global refined copper consumption was 19.988 MMT, compared with 19.375 MMT in the previous year. On a regional basis, refined copper production increased in Africa (11%), Asia (6%), Europe (4.5%) and Oceania (12.5) but decreased in the Americas (-3.5%). 

Global Scenario

 Growth in refined copper usage has been especially strong in Asia, where demand has expanded more than five-fold in less than 30 years. Major refined copper exporting countries are Chile, Zambia, Japan, Russia and Peru, while major refined copper importing countries are China, USA, Germany, Italy and Taiwan.

 Indian Scenario

 In 2012, India's production of refined copper is 689,312 MT, which is around 4% of the total world production. Sterlite Industries, Hindalco, and Hindustan Copper are three major producers of copper in India. From the status of a net importer, India is emerging as a net exporter of copper on account of a rise in the production of copper. Electric and electronic products industry has become India's largest copper consuming sector, accounting for 36% of the total Indian copper consumption. Telecom is still India's second largest copper consuming sector, accounting for 20% of the total Indian copper consumption. 

Factors Influencing the Market

 Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule in the international spot market, and Indian Rupee and US Dollar exchange rates. Economic events such as the national industrial growth, global financial crisis, recession and inflation affect metal prices. Commodity-specific events such as the construction of new production facilities or processes, new uses or the discontinuance of historical uses, unexpected mine or plant closures (natural disaster, supply disruption, accident, strike, and so forth), or industry restructuring, all affect metal prices. Trade policies set by the Government (implementation or suspension of taxes, penalties, and quotas) affect supply as they regulate (restricting or encouraging) material flow. Geopolitical events involving governments or economic paradigms and armed conflict can cause major changes. As societies develop, their demand for metal increases based on their current economic position, which could also be referred as ‘National Economic Growth Factor’.

SILVER

Introduction 

Silver (Chemical symbol-Ag) is a brilliant grey-white metal that is soft and malleable. Silver’s unique properties include its strength, malleability, ductility, electrical and thermal conductivity, sensitivity, high reflectance of light, and reactivity. The main source of silver is lead ore, although it can also be found associated with copper, zinc and gold and produced as a by-product of base metal mining activities. Secondary silver sources include coin melt, scrap recovery, and dis-hoarding from countries where export is restricted. Secondary sources are price sensitive. 

Demand and Supply 

 In 2011, the worldwide silver fabrication demand was 876.6 million ounces (Moz)—down by 1.5% from the value in 2010, but still reaching its second highest level since 2000. Globally, in 2011, the physical silver bar investment grew by 67% to 95.7 Moz, while fabrication of coins and medals rose by almost 19% to an all-time high of 118.2 Moz. In 2011, silverware offtake dropped by 10.2% to 46.0 Moz from the previous year, as a result of lower demand in India. Higher prices coupled with ongoing structural decline in the western markets caused a fall in the Indian silverware demand. Part of this fall was offset by some gains in China. The world silver mine production increased by 1.4% to a new record level of 761.6 Moz in 2011, as compared with the previous year. In 2011, scrap supply rose by 12% over the previous fiscal to a second straight record of 256.7 Moz, driven by gains in jewellery and silverware recycling on higher prices. Government sales fell by a massive 74 per cent to a 14-year low of 11.5 Moz in 2011.The drastic decline was entirely due to a collapse in sales from Russia, where disposals dropped by nearly 90%. Notable production losses were observed in Australia, Peru, the United States and Turkey in 2011, amounting to 20.3 Moz. 

Global Scenario

 Silver is predominantly traded on the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and COMEX in New York. LBMA, the global hub of over-the-counter (OTC) trading in silver, is the metal’s main physical market. Comex is a futures and options exchange, where most funds’ activities are focused. Silver is invariably quoted in US Dollars per troy ounce.

 Indian Scenario 

The average annual demand for silver in India is about 2500 Metric tonnes (MT) per year. In 2011, the country’s production was around 342.13 MT. Nearly 60% of India's silver demand comes from farmers and rural India, who store their savings in the form of silver bangles and coins.

 Factors Influencing the Market 

Economic events such as India’s industrial growth, the global financial crisis, recession and inflation affect metal prices. Commodity-specific events such as the construction of new production facilities or processes, unexpected mine or plant closures, or industry restructuring affect the market. Governments set trade policy (implementation or suspension of taxes, penalties, and quotas) that affect supply by regulating (restricting or encouraging) the material flow. Geopolitical events involving governments or economic paradigms and armed conflict can cause major changes. A faster growth in demand against supply often leads to a drop in stocks with the government and investors. Silver demand is underpinned by the demand from jewellery and silverware, industrial applications, and overall industrial growth. In India, the real industrial demand occupies a small share in the total industrial demand for silver. This is in sharp contrast to most developed economies. In India, silver demand is also determined to a large extent by its price level and volatility.

CRUDE OIL

Introduction 

Crude oil is a complex mixture of various hydrocarbons found in the upper layers of the earth's crust. Crude oil is often attributed as the “Mother of all Commodities” because of its importance in the manufacturing of a wide variety of materials. Crude oil accounts for 35% of the world's primary energy consumption. Crude oil is used to produce fuel for cars, trucks, airplanes, boats and trains. It is also used for a wide variety of other products including asphalt for roads, lubricants for all kinds of machines; plastics for toys, bottles, food wraps, among others.

 Global Scenario 

 Global proven oil reserves in 2011 was around 1652.6 thousand million barrels, of which the OPEC had 1196.3 thousand million barrels. Crude oil accounts for 33% of the world's primary energy consumption. Global oil demand was 88.3 million barrels per day (mmb/d) in 2011, an increase of around 0.7% from the previous year. In 2010, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the US and Iran were the top oil producing countries. Although the US is the world's third largest oil producing nation, it is the world's largest consumer and importer of oil followed by China, Japan and India. 

Indian Scenario 

Oil accounts for 29% of India's total energy consumption and there seems to be no possibility of scaling down the dependence on these fuels. Crude oil production during the period April-March 2012 (provisional) was 38.19 million metric tonne (MMT), as compared with 37.71 MMT during the corresponding period last year. The total oil consumption in 2010 was around 3.34 mmb/d. India is the fourth largest consumer of oil and imports more than 70% of its crude oil requirement. India's refining capacity stood at 193.39 MMTPA on January 1, 2012 of which 116.89 MMT is in the public sector, 6.00 MMT in joint ventures, and the balance 70.50 MMTPA in the private sector. The Government of India realised the need to explore more areas and has implemented New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP), according to which 100% FDI is permitted for small and medium sized oil fields through competitive bidding.

 Price Moving Factors 

OPEC output, supply and spare capacities Increased demand from emerging and developing countries; geopolitics US crude and products inventories data Currency fluctuations Weather conditions Speculative buying and selling Changes in the refining sector, for example, a drop in the refinery utilisation rate

NICKEL IS IN STRONG DOWN TREND MAY BE TAKE SUPPORT NEAR 13300-400 LEVEL
WE CAN SEE SOME DEMAND ON THAT ZONE

COMEX COPPER IS TRADING IN DOWN TREND BUT ITS ALSO HAVING MAJOR 
TREND LINE SUPPORT ON CURRENT LEVEL

NYMX CRUDE IN DOWNTREND BUT HERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ONE WOLF WAVE IF HOLD
IT YESTERDAY LOW THEN WE CAN AGAIN SEE ABOVE 50$ MARK

COMEX GOLD CONTINUOUSLY TRADING IN DOWNTREND NOW FORMING A DOWN CHANNEL ASPECTED MAJOR MOVE AFTER BREAKING THE CHANAL ONLY

MCX GOLD CAN TAKE SUPPORT IN CURRENT LEVEL

CRUDE OIL BROKEN MAJOR TREND LINE YESTERDAY

Today Important levels

Plan the Trade & Trade the Plan

This is where all the thinking in trading comes into play, while writing your trading plan. Once you have created your rules to trade by, you become more systematic and logical in your thought process for executing successful trades. Your personal trading plan will include every step of the trade from identifying to exiting your trade. By having your setup written down in your plan, you will have a better chance of using patience and discipline to wait for your entry. Otherwise, you will use emotions to enter trades and we all know where that will get you. After entering your trade, you will have more confidence because you have back-tested your strategy and know that it has a successful track record and will give you that extra edge over your competition. Identifying your entry strategy will help you execute your strategy in an efficient manner with no hesitation. There will be no guessing or wondering what to do once your setup is identified, you just click and go. Your risk management is also pre-defined so your initial protective stop is set on entry and you know when you will be moving your protective stop to breakeven after the market moves in your direction by a certain amount. Of course, our price target is also known in advance and how we will exit the market at this target. Will we have a set price target, a trailing stop, a time stop, etc.?

Rules to Stop Losing Money.

1. Don’t trust others opinions – It’s your money at stake, not theirs. Do your own analysis, regardless of the information source.
2. Don’t break your rules – You made them for tough situations, just like the one you’re probably in right now.
3. Don’t try to get even – Trading is never a game of catch-up. Every position must stand on its merits. Take your loss with composure, and take the next trade with absolute discipline.
4. Don’t believe in a company – Trading is not investment. Remember the charts and forget the press releases.
5. Don’t seek the Holy Grail – There is no secret trading formula, other than solid . So stop looking for it.
6. Don’t forget your discipline – Learning the basics is easy. Most traders fail due to a lack of discipline, not a lack of knowledge.
7. Don’t trade over your head – Concentrate on playing the game well, and don’t worry about making money.
8. Don’t chase the crowd – Listen to the beat of your own drummer. By the time the crowd acts, you’re probably too late…or too early.
9. Don’t trade the obvious – The prettiest patterns set up the most painful losses. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
10. Don’t ignore the warning signs – Big losses rarely come without warning. Don’t wait for a lifeboat to abandon a sinking ship.
11. Don’t count your chickens – Profits aren’t booked until the trade is closed. The market gives and the market takes away with great fury.
12. Don’t forget the plan – Remember the reasons you took the trade in the first place, and don’t get blinded by volatility.
13. Don’t join a group – Trading is not a team sport. Avoid acting on messages, flashes and financial TV. Your judgement may be more correct than all of them put together
14. Don’t have a pay check mentality – You don’t deserve anything for all of your hard work. The market only pays off when you’re right, and when your timing is really, really good.
15. Don’t ignore your intuition – Respect the little voice that tells you what to do, and what to avoid. That’s the voice of the winner trying to get into your thick head.
16. Don’t hate losing – Expect to win and lose with great regularity. Expect the losing to teach you more about winning, than the winning itself.
17. Don’t fall into the complexity trap – A well-trained eye is more effective than as tack of indicators. Some time Common sense is more valuable than a complex set of indications.
18. Don’t confuse execution with opportunity – Overpriced software won’t help you trade like a pro. Pretty colours and flashing lights make you a faster trader, not a better one.
19. Don’t project your personal life – The outcome of your trade is definitely likely to get affected by the situation at your home. Get your own house in order before playing the markets.
20. Don’t think its entertainment – Trading should be boring most of the time, just like the real job you have right now.

Rules For Trading

5 Rules Give you Profit

“The most important is discipline – I am sure everyone tells you that”.
“You have to have patience; if you have a good trade on, you have to be able to stay with it”.
“You need courage to go into the market, and courage comes from adequate capitalization”.
“You must have a willingness to lose; that is also related to adequate capitalization”.
“You need a strong desire to win.”

Trading Rules & Plans..!!! You have …????

 

Traders must have rules and trading plans because in the heat of trading when emotions flare up that is when greed, fear, and ego can easily hijack the trader. Traders all have many different conflicting parts that can interfere with trading execution. The need to be right, the need to make money, the fear of loss, and the greed of making a lot of money can take over any trader that does not have a disciplined approach that is created before the day begins. Mechanical systems, trading rules, along with positions sizing and risk management factors can keep a trader safe from making huge mistakes.
Here are the top 10 Questions Traders must ask to protect them from themselves.
1. Where does the price of my trading vehicle have to go to prove I was wrong about my entry?
2. How much is the maximum I will lose on the trade if I am wrong?
3. What are my rules for entries?
4. How will I exit my winner to bank profits?
5. What is the current trend of the time frame I trade in?Where is my best entry point to trade in this direction?
6. What is my watch list for things I will be trading today?
7. What is the maximum amount of risk I will put on at any one time?
8. What has to happen in the markets for me to just go to cash?
9. What exactly is my edge that will make me successful in the long term?
10. What is my objective as a trader? Capital appreciation? Trading for a living? Financial independence? 20% annual returns?

To be a successful trader you must first ask the right questions. I believe the above questions are a great place to start.

Knowledge about commodity

Gold 
 Gold is the oldest precious metal known to man and for thousands of years it has been valued as a global currency, a commodity, an investment and simply an object of beauty.

Introduction
 Gold (Chemical Symbol-Au) is primarily a monetary asset and partly a commodity. Gold is the world's oldest international currency. Gold is an important element of global monetary reserves. With regard to the investment value, more than two-thirds of gold total accumulated holdings is with central banks' reserves, private players, and held in the form of jewellery. Less than one-third of gold's total accumulated holdings are used as “commodity” for jewellery in the western markets and industry.

 Demand and Supply

 World investment amounted to 1614 MT in 2012, broadly flat year-on-year, but the approximate value of this demand reached a new record of almost $87 billion. Major drivers of this strong investment included further monetary loosening in the developed world, continued sovereign debt crisis, rising longer-term inflation fears and in key markets, negative real interest rates coupled with limited attractive risk-free investment alternatives to gold. In 2012, the gold mine production increased by 12 MT to 2848 MT and the combined demand for bars & coins dropped from 1515 MT to 1256 MT.

Global Scenario

 London is the world’s biggest clearing house. Mumbai is under India's liberalised gold regime. New York is the home of gold futures trading. Zurich is a physical turntable. Istanbul, Dubai, Singapore, and Hong Kong are doorways to important consuming regions. Tokyo, where TOCOM sets the mood of Japan.

 Indian Scenario

 India, world’s largest market for gold jewellery and a key driver of the global gold demand. The domestic drivers of gold demand are largely independent of outside forces. Indian households hold the largest stock of gold in the world. Two thirds of the Indian demand for gold comes from the rural parts of the country. In 2012, gold's role as an inflation hedge bolstered its appeal in India. India imported around 850 metric tonne (MT) of gold in 2012.

 Factors Influencing the Market 

Above ground supply of gold from central bank's sale, reclaimed scrap, and official gold loans. Hedging interest of producers/miners. World macroeconomic factors such as the US Dollar, interest rate and economic events. Commodity-specific events such as the construction of new production facilities or processes, unexpected mine or plant closures, or industry restructuring. In India, gold demand is also determined to a large extent by its price level and volatility.

Technical Charts

Today Technical view

technical view

Today Importent Economic Data

Welcome

Dear Friends ,
                    Welcome to crudemetals.blogspot.in. i am a day Trader in Indian commodity market i will share my views & my charts here all views are only for learning purpose i am not advising any kind of trade/Tip  buy or sell to any body.


As per SEBI Circular Only SEBI Registered Advisers can share their advises to client,other people can share NEWS/Studies or there brokers calls. All views provided in this blog are for Study Purpose only not for any trading recommendation

Thanks,
KWR